The latest unemployment numbers are a confirmation of the many reports showing the recession is easing. While many conservatives have been saying Obama's economic policies are a disaster and the economy will never recover, the truth is far more complex than that.
Democrat partisans will be quick to should how Obama's policies and the stimulus in particular have resulted in this turnaround. Yet, the stimulus has barely yet taken effect. Less than 10% of the stimulus money has been spent. Claiming Obama is responsible is like claiming your horse won the race because you blew at it to help it along. Since the economy is now improving, can we cancel the other 90% of those stimulus funds?
The reality is what I have said all along. Left alone, the economy will improve all by itself. The government didn't meddle in the economy significantly until the 1930s. During the first 150 years of our Republic, we had economic downturns that lasted from 1 to 7 years. The economy always recovered, totally without government intervention.
Gorvernment cannot help the economy. This is because they take money from other people. If I take $100 from Paul and spend it, I am not generating new economic activity. I am merely replacing whatever Paul was going to do with that money with mine. The government does nothing to generate wealth.
This is not to say we don't need government. We do. Government has a few well defined functions that are very important: providing for our common defense, maintaining law and order, and acting as an impartial referee of business. In order to improve the economy, the best thing the government can do is stay out of the way.
Obama's policies are a disaster. His takeovers of various portions of the economy has scared away investment. Nobody wants to invest in a new business until they know that Obama isn't going to take it over, or dramatically change the rules to make it unprofitable. This applies more so to where we need it most, like energy. Would you invest your money in a new energy company when this government seems quite willing to either outlaw it or take it over? And of course there is the huge government spending. This will lead to major inflation in the US. Already, our foreign investors are spooked and looking for something other than US dollars to use and buy.
My bet is that we will see an economic recovery, of sorts. GDP will resume growth, and unemployment will decline. But, we will not achieve the prosperity we enjoyed prior to this recession, and inflation will once again rear its ugly head. It will take a couple more years for this to play out, but unless we dramatically change course from what the President has set, this is our future.